Summary of Best Bets:
Race 3 No.3 Melodia Legend (Value) – Forgiving of last start when he may have overdone it on speed. Softer run can see him bounce back.
Race 4 No.1 I’m A Dexstar – Home track runner who does not have to improve much to win.
Race 5 No.2 The Wirrulla Boy (Best) – Recent form has been strong in similar races and set up suggests he can go one better.
Turf Talk:
- Rail +2.5m 1000m-700m, +3m 700m-W/Post. True remainder.
- Clear weather forecast leading into and on race day.
- Track expected Good 4 and has played evenly so far this season at Port Lincoln.
Stats that matter:
- Garret Lynch has been profitable in his last 100 starts and has a solid record travelling here. He strikes at 18.1% at this track with a POT of +12.3%.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Competitive Maiden to kick things off.
(5) Renegade Chief was well supported last start but perhaps did not get the right run from a wider barrier. Drawn much better today which should help him see out a rise in distance.
(9) Holder Maid showed good improvement between his two runs this prep. He has taken a long time to win at Maiden level, but last start suggested he can improve again.
(7) Johnny The Jet makes his debut for a new stable and should find this easier than the Maidens he has contested so far. Gets in light at the weights.
(1) Defiant Caesour could take up the lead which may suit and he will be improved second-up today.
Selections:
(5) Renegade Chief
(9) Holder Maid
(7) Johnny The Jet
(1) Defiant Caesour
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
Hard to trust a couple of these fully but the stronger form looks to be with the top two if they show up.
(6) Offa’s Dyke was well supported to win last start off the back of some reasonable form that suggested he can win at this grade. Drawn again to settle on speed, if he gets a similar run he is well in with a chance.
(8) Grinzinger Gold resumes off a decent spell and showed good form at her home track last prep. A gap between trials is not ideal so happy to watch first-up before having full confidence.
(1) Arlo’s Dream showed good improvement when rising to this trip here last time. Drawn for a similar run again so should go close.
(12) Stars Are Aligning was close to a win when resuming and will be fitter here. She maps as a likely leader which should suit.
Selections:
(6) Offa’s Dyke
(8) Grinzinger Gold
(1) Arlo’s Dream
(12) Stars Are Aligning
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
Value play.
(3) Melodia Legend was a good winner at Balaklava two starts back to break his maiden when leading all the way. Be forgiving of last start when he perhaps overdid it up on speed. With a softer run today he can bounce back.
(6) Agreeance drops in grade here after a run last start over the same track and trip. Better suited at this level but may need luck from the wide barrier.
(16) Stardealt has not shown a great deal in his first two runs for a new stable but up to 1750m looks suitable and a better set up.
(14) Ketchikan drops in grade from his previous runs so far this prep. Looks well suited here if he can overcome a wide barrier.
Selections:
(3) Melodia Legend
(6) Agreeance
(16) Stardealt
(14) Ketchikan
Suggested Bet: E/W (3) Melodia Legend
Race 4:
Local form to the fore.
(1) I’m A Dexstar was a sharp improver last start when rising quickly in distance. Similar set up again and a strong record at this track suggests he should go very close.
(2) I Need A Drink is another local who has a strong record at this track and particularly over this distance range. If the track is favouring on speed types, he could be best set up from the inside barrier.
(3) Sir Lord won a race with a very similar set up last start when proving hard to hold out with a light weight. Maps to be on speed again but there could be more pressure here and he carries more weight which is the query.
(6) Diamonds Are looks likely to be strong late with a light weight but needs to rise in grade for this.
Selections:
(1) I’m A Dexstar
(2) I Need A Drink
(3) Sir Lord
(6) Diamonds Are
Suggested Bet: Win (1) I’m A Dexstar
Race 5:
Best bet on the program.
(2) The Wirrulla Boy was close in the finish here last start in a similar race and set up. His form before his home track return was in stronger races so he can go one better today with the same set up.
(3) The Guava drops in grade from the races he has contested recently this prep. An easier race today could help him find improvement.
(5) Lava Lad has won three in a row and is hard to knock. He steps up in level now but is in the form to be doing so.
(6) Rialtor tackles a stronger race off the back of a last start win. Needs to overcome a wide barrier but has the speed to find a position quickly.
Selections:
(2) The Wirrulla Boy
(3) The Guava
(5) Lava Lad
(6) Rialtor
Suggested Bet: Win (2) The Wirrulla Boy
Race 6:
Would prefer to see the track is playing evenly before betting into this.
(2) Elderberry was a winner at a big price when resuming here recently. Rising in trip and fitter second up both look positives off the back of running the fastest L600m and L400m of the meeting last time. He has managed a second up win previously in a prep.
(1) Tydeus was the runner caught late by Elderberry last time. Needs to handle a rise in distance but may get a softer tempo out in front which will help.
(3) Messerschmitt is likely to be better suited up in trip and now third-up into the prep he can be a sharp improver.
(8) Howaboutthis broke through for her maiden victory here last time at a huge price. Sharp jump up in level but with a light weight she can hit the line strongly again.
Selections:
(2) Elderberry
(1) Tydeus
(3) Messerschmitt
(8) Howaboutthis
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7:
Tricky race with little appeal.
(2) Setteveli has run two close seconds at his past two starts. Rising slightly in distance and an inside barrier should suit.
(1) Diadochos was a last start winner at this track and distance and gets in with very similar conditions again. Hard to knock in a similar set up.
(3) Cullen Skink has not won for some time but drops well down in grade from the last start run he contested here. Can go close with the right run.
(6) Lapilli broke through for her first win with the new stable over this same track and distance set up. She can continue to rise through the grades if she holds that form.
Selections:
(2) Setteveli
(1) Diadochos
(3) Cullen Skink
(6) Lapilli
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8:
Hard to map out, waiting to see the track.
(6) Belmont Avenue should be fitter second-up off a let up. Likely gets back from a wide barrier and will need an even track but can improve with added fitness.
(3) Star Valour has placed at his past two runs and is better suited dropping slightly in grade while rising in trip.
(1) Fortis In Armis has taken time to find form since joining the new stable. Previous form measures up for this level and the rise in distance may help.
(5) Midnight Ruler maps for the run of the race on speed from barrier one. If he gets a soft run out in front he could prove hard to reel in.
Selections:
(6) Belmont Avenue
(3) Star Valour
(1) Fortis In Armis
(5) Midnight Ruler
Suggested Bet: No bet
